ЕВРОПЕЙСКАЯ КОНТАКТНАЯ ЗОНА: 2000
EUROPEAN CONTACT ZONE: 2000
Санкт-Петербург — 2000
SOCIO-CULTURAL FOUNDATIONS
OF EAST-EUROPEAN & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS
This report is based on the theory of socio-culturalsystems (SCS) developed by the author. As a matter of fact, it is one of itspossible, numerous applications. First of all — several words about the theoryitself as far as it is still a relatively new thing for Western colleagues.
We work on the SCS theory approximately since 1984.Its developing moves quite slowly. Between 1984-97 we finished no single book,though wrote and keep on our PC several thousands of pages on Russian, Western,Chinese and Black African SCS-s. These texts are mainly just preliminarymaterials. Many times we’ve tried to complete the general theory as well asmore specific texts on various SCS-s, but until very recently — without much success.
Our current problem with the SCS theory is that itsabstract description would be unconvincing and looking more like usualscientific speculation (that is not right). It’s necessary to compile aspecific analysis of the existing SCS-s, but such analysis of one distinct SCSis highly difficult to be made: all the socio-cultural systems are closelyconnected, and the correct understanding of each one is only possible in caseof taking into account all their interrelations. So, we have to bring out descriptionsof all the SCS-s, plus the theory in general at the same time, that isextremely complicated task: each SCS is a special kind of reality, with its ownlogic and rules, and it’s simply impossible to describe all the existing andexisted SCS-s in an observable future. Such work would require a lot of timeand in general seems unlikely to be done by two people. Not only the scale ofthe task itself is the point, but one surely cannot correctly depict all theSCS-s in principle. In fact, being the people of the Russian SCS, we canexamine and accurately describe only it. Muslim, Chinese, Black African SCS-sand others still remain not entirely understandable; to characterise them inall details we’d have to explain many nuances of their past and present — butto do so we have to be the people of these SCS-s. It doesn’t mean one cannotunderstand another SCS at all: the point is detailed examination of the SCS’sevolution only — at least, so we think at the moment.
The SCS theory has numerous applications in the fieldof geopolitics and analysis of the space assimilation processes. In this reportwe’ll consider only some aspects, and more specifically — socio-culturalfoundations of East-European and Russian geopolitics. More systematically thesewere presented in our publications [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7].
1.Socio-cultural processes of the space assimilation do have their own logic thatunfolds for centuries. Geopolitical processes are just the individualmanifestations of these fundamental socio-cultural phenomena. The geopoliticallevel does usually attract most attention and provoke the most sharp reactionthat often leads to its incorrect interpretation. The SCS theory allows for amore accurate description of the space assimilation processes. Geopolitics, asfrom the positions of the theory, become just one of its particularapplications.
We won’t repeat here all ideas and principles of theSCS theory — just refer to the respective appendixes to this report: APPENDIX 1. THE TERMINOLOGY AND CONCEPTS USED: DEFINITIONS APPENDIX 2. TYPES OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL FORMATIONS; SOCIO-CULTURAL TYPE’S INDICATIONS / QUALITIES APPENDIX 3. PERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS’ EVOLUTION APPENDIX 4. PERIODS AND SUBPERIODS OF THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS’ EVOLUTION
The above presents the general concept of the SCStheory as well as principal facts of the socio-cultural evolution and dynamics.
2.We’ve performed comparative analysis of the European and Asia Minor externalbuffer zones’ evolution. The result of the analysis — atlas of the computergenerated space-time models (kartoids) that reflects the logic of this spaceevolution. Geopolitical problems of the region and its conflicts appear asparticular consequences of the general evolution. Suggested system of thecomputer generated space-time models creates a principally new foundation forfurther geopolitical processes’ forecasting / prognosis.
The atlas serves as a foundation for forecastinggeopolitical processes in the entire European external buffer zone. It alsoreflects and correctly explains the processes in the Balkans, the essence andstate of the current crisis there. We insist that these processes don’t possesschaotic geopolitical character, but are consequences of the regular evolutionof the region.
Some results of such analysis are presented in thepapers of my colleague — Tatiana Nikolaenko.
Here is just the periodization for all the Europeanexternal buffer zone’s socio-cultural regions and Asia Minor.